Mike Munro: National Party worried as Christopher Luxon fails to fire with voters

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It was only a matter of time before the recalcitrant Nats were uneasy about Christopher Luxon’s ability to get their party over the line in October, and it started to make sense.

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This week we got a tidbit about the state of mind in the party.

In a newspaper column, five-term congressman and party mogul Philip Burdon, who served in Jim Bolger’s cabinet, revealed an uneasiness that may have been lurking in the party’s grassroots and documents — and maybe the caucus — for a while.

Burton certainly hasn’t flinched: National “lacks the precision and appeal of other parties” when it comes to policy and leadership. The party is trying to be everything to everyone. It is taking an increasingly soft stance on issues and risks being seen as “out of touch with provincial and rural New Zealand”.

Then there’s the crux: Luxon “clearly failed to personally motivate voters”. If his popularity continues to decline, “it will be a dangerous negative”.

Luxon actually bucked the trend to sink this week. The 1 News-Kantar poll on Thursday showed his support for the prime minister rose by one point to 18%. Still, compare that to the 20-something figure he registered a year ago.

On Christmas Eve last year, his first anniversary in office, Luxon was credited with rallying the national caucus and leading the polls so far that the party overtook Labour.

The omens are bright. This is not surprising, as the government is in disarray on many fronts.

With a cost of living crisis, businesses struggling to get by, a slew of Covid-related grievances lingering, the health system languishing under pressure and public frustration over young people attacking the Rams running rampant – National certainly has the potential to beat Labour. sea ​​bass?

Although National leads Labor in this week’s polls, you wouldn’t bet on it. And the reason you don’t want to bet on your house is that Luxon hasn’t been able to touch the imagination. He kept Labor running.

After last year’s improvement, this is not how the 2023 national team should have been.

Of course, a lot has changed since the beginning of the year. Jacinda Ardern steps down, Chris Hipkins secures the prime ministership, unpopular policies are dropped and the government embarks on an election-year spending spree.

riceMeanwhile, Luxon’s struggles show no signs of abating.

He had a miserable budget day, delivered a memorable budget debate speech, essentially repeating his trademark line of attack, and then dealt with the fallout as the National Party vowed to restore Grant Robertson’s just-announced end to prescription charges . National’s only budget week policy is the promise that every New Zealander will receive a receipt showing where their tax dollars are spent.

Luxon is seen as lacking in authenticity, out of touch with reality (47% agreed in this month’s Newshub poll) and prone to mistakes. So the question that inevitably arises is why should he be a competent prime minister if he can’t prove his abilities as leader of the opposition?

Where National Party loyalists have gathered to survey the political landscape, you get the sense that the conversation won’t be about what kind of prime minister he’ll be, just about whether he can win.

It can be painful for them to feel that a prize that seemed within reach a few months ago now feels like a ways off.

Neither major party likes to lose. That’s to be expected, but with National you feel the pain of electoral defeat more acutely. There’s a reason the left mocks them for being born conservative.

The National Party is often described as the natural party of government, and the historical record proves why. In the post-war era, the party has spent far more time in government than in government, with Helen Clark’s prime ministership the only time in the past 70 years they have spent three terms in an opposition seat.

So the prospect of a third term for the opposition party, especially given all the conflict and upheaval of late, is so intolerable that the powerful ask, how is that possible?

Which brings us back to Luxon’s leadership.

They are unlikely to sack him, unless National’s support is shocking. Because the last thing the party wants is the painful rupture of another leadership change. The devastation caused by the 2020 Bridges-Muller-Collins leaders’ march has not been forgotten.

If his personal numbers continue to deteriorate, Luxon could certainly fall under his sword, but with equal chances of an election victory in October, that’s also unlikely. He comes across as brimming with confidence, for whom the prime ministership is the holy grail that must be won.

So, as the National Party heads into election season with little hope, it hopes the downturn will increase Labour’s chances of survival and that Luxon can start to show he has what it takes to lead a government.

Hope is a useful psychological buffer when dealing with uncertainty, but it’s not your strategy for winning elections.

In Russia there is an old story about hope.

It tells of a farmer who earns money to support his family by promising the Tsar that within a month he can make his dog talk. If he fails, he will be executed. The peasant woman was shocked and scolded him. He explained that the tsar was so overwhelmed with problems that he might forget his promises, or die of illness, or be distracted by a new war.

“Who knows,” said the farmer, “maybe the dog will say something.”

National stuck with Luxon, hoping the dog could talk.

– Mike Munro is Jacinda Ardern’s former chief of staff and Helen Clark’s chief press secretary.